Armenia's CSTO Membership Freeze Likely to Continue in 2025 - Foreign Intelligence Service

In its annual report, Armenia's Foreign Intelligence Service believes the country's frozen membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) will likely remain suspended through 2025, Orda reports, citing News Armenia.

The department cited the alliance's continued inability to address South Caucasus security challenges.

The CSTO's inability to respond to South Caucasus issues, despite its charter obligations, is unlikely to change in 2025. We consider it improbable that grounds for Armenia's frozen CSTO membership will dissipate,  the report states.

The agency warns that regional military spending and arms development will continue to rise, creating "asymmetric risks" for smaller states like Armenia with limited material and non-material resources.

Meanwhile, the department's annual risk assessment finds a low probability of large-scale conflict with Azerbaijan while warning of potential border escalations without a formal peace treaty.

The Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service analyzes Azerbaijan's narratives against Armenia's sovereignty as hostile.

They include claims about "West Azerbaijan," "Armenian militarization," "revanchism," and the "Zangezur corridor." 

The intelligence service warns that Azerbaijan will continue enhancing its offensive capabilities in 2025, reducing response time between political decisions and military operations.

This includes developing mobile units, building reserves, acquiring new weapons, and upgrading military infrastructure.

Regional alliance shifts and Azerbaijan's aggressive rhetoric, including interference in Armenian internal affairs, further heighten interstate tensions.

The Foreign Intelligence Service predicts these pressure tactics will likely continue through 2025.