Kazakhstan’s Export Revenue Declines Despite Rising Oil Production

For years, Kazakhstan’s export earnings have been driven by oil, ore, and uranium. But according to experts, revenue from raw materials has started to decline, Orda.kz reports.

Analysts from Halyk Finance reviewed foreign trade statistics for the first quarter of 2025 and raised several questions.

Exports fell noticeably in the first quarter. Compared to the same period in 2024, they dropped by 13.4%, while imports increased slightly by 0.3%. Kazakhstan earned $16.3 billion from foreign trade between January and March, $2.2 billion less than the previous year.

The most significant drop was in raw material exports, down 14.4% year-on-year. Intermediate goods also saw a decline of 6.7%. Finished goods exports increased by 4.2%, but this category remains much smaller in value: $1.8 billion compared to $12.8 billion from raw materials.

The most surprising data, analysts say, comes from oil exports.

Oil supplies have decreased both in value terms (-21.2% year-on-year) and in physical volumes (-14.0% year-on-year), despite the growth of production in the country. Thus, oil production at KMG increased by 5.8% year-on-year, including due to the expansion of capacity at the Tengiz field. Such a multidirectional dynamics raises questions since under normal conditions, production growth should be accompanied by an increase in export supplies. We have not found any official explanations for this discrepancy,
said analyst Aidos Taybekuly. 

Exports of ores and minerals also declined by 5%. Iron ore, in particular, saw a 30% drop in value on international markets. Copper ore exports rose slightly, by just 1%. Wheat exports increased, but not at a scale significant enough to impact the broader figures.

Another key export — uranium and related products — also decreased.

A significant reduction was recorded for semi-finished products for nuclear fuel — by 84% year-on-year both in cost and by 80% in physical volume. The reduction is likely to be affected by the shortage of technological components that arose last year,
Taybekuly noted. 

Kazakhstan increased exports of rolled metal (+9%), machinery and equipment (+12.9%), jewelry (+18.9%), and vegetable oils and fats (+80%) during the first quarter.

Still, Halyk Finance emphasizes that these gains are not enough to offset the broader decline.

Against the backdrop of a decline in exports, the foreign trade surplus fell by 39% year-on-year — from $5.6 billion to $3.4 billion. For comparison, the decline in the first two months of 2025 was 36%. According to our classification, the non-resource trade balance remains in deficit and has worsened slightly compared to the same period last year — to -$8.2 billion from -$8.1 billion,
said Taybekuly. 

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is approaching a new record in oil production.

Original Author: Nikita Drobny