How a Rebellion Can Be Successful - Political Scientists On Events in Russia
Do the events taking place in Russia pose a threat to Kazakhstan? Should Putin be afraid of Prigozhin? An Orda correspondent tried to find answers to these questions Orda.kz and Kazakh political scientists helped.
The founder of the Wagner PMCs, Yevgeny Prigozhin, published several audio messages on the night of June 24, in which he accused the Russian Defense Ministry of striking at the positions of Wagner mercenaries. He stated that he intends to figure out why lawlessness is happening in Russia and how to stop it. Prigozhin says that there are 25 thousand troops on his side. Wagner mercenaries led by Prigozhin crossed the border of the Luhansk region occupied by Russia and seized administrative and military buildings in Rostov-on-Don and announced a "march of justice" towards Moscow. On the territory of the Voronezh Region, as well as in Moscow and the Moscow region, a counter-terrorist operation regime has been declared.
Political scientist Marat Shibutov believes that what is happening is a typical situation when a certain group of people, dissatisfied with the leadership of the country, arranges a rebellion.
"Even in the post–Soviet space, this has already happened three times – in Azerbaijan – Suret Huseynov, in Georgia – Tengiz Kitovani, in Tajikistan - Mahmud Khudoiberdyev. And if you take it around the world, then there are dozens of such cases already. You see, when the big bosses speak from the stands about patriotism and how to give one's life for the Motherland against the enemy, and then they conclude various deals with the same enemy for small profit, including killing their own soldiers, this is perceived very badly by soldiers on the front line,"the expert says.
Political scientist Dina Shaikhislam called Prigozhin's actions only a rebellion attempt, based on the fact that there are only 25 thousand fighters in the Wagnerians.
"Yes, the main forces of the Russian Defense Ministry are involved at the front and there are no large reserves to deter Wagner (mercenaries - Ed). However, the Ministry of Defense has aircraft (missile systems) that can strike Wagner columns – columns on the march are easily vulnerable. Only if the Wagner (mercenaries - Ed.) do not start moving in mobile groups, it will complicate the work of aviation a little,"Shaikhislam said.
The expert also says that there is also a matter of the Russian military-political elite's mindset.
"The rebellion is successful only when security forces and oligarchs come over to its side. Yes, Sergei Kiriyenko and the Kovalchuk brothers are behind Prigozhin, but we will find out how much they want a military coup and a transfer of power in the next 24 hours,"explained Dina Shaikhislam.
The political scientist names the rebellion of Colonel of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces Suret Huseynov in June 1993 as a successful example of a military coup in the CIS countries.
"He raised a military mutiny and also with his army began advancing towards the capital, demanding the resignation of the president of Azerbaijan at that time – Abulfaza Elchibey. Then Heydar Aliyev intervened, who, according to many sources, supported Huseynov and with his help wanted to oust Elchibey. Huseynov's rebellion ended with the overthrow of Mr. Elchibey. And Huseynov himself became prime minister for a year, while Aliyev became president. However, later Huseynov again decided to rebel against Heydar Aliyev, but it did not end with success, of course, and he was arrested,"Shaikhislam said.
Marat Shibutov says that, as with any riot, the bulk of the population and troops will not show excessive activity.
"Among the active, conditional 5% on both sides will look for supporters and who will be supported more - wins,"the expert believes.
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Eurasian Center in Russia, has noted that Prigozhin has no allies in the ruling elites. Whatever the outcome of events, according to Marat Shibutov, the Russian political elite will be much more aggressive.
"It will be the elite's collective decision. There will no longer be any "big brothers", there will be an analogue of the USA in Latin America in the last century. It's just that if Prigozhin wins, this can happen right away, and if Putin, then a little later,"Shibutov noted.
Dina Shaikhislam believes that Prigozhin's actions do not pose a real danger, though Putin's reputation will take a hit.
"Not Putin is a tiger, not invulnerable Putin a thunderstorm for the West. And this is very important,"the expert summed up.
Original Author: Zhansaya Aliyeva
DISCLAIMER: This is a translated article. The text has been modified, the content is the same. Please refer to the original article in Russian for accuracy.
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