German Chancellor's Visit to Central Asia Explained

Olaf Scholz's Central Asia visit includes talks in Tashkent and Astana and participation in the second Z5+1 summit. The topics the Chancellor will discuss with the top officials of the Central Asian states are still unknown. At the moment, there are only assumptions. Political expert Anatoly Ivanov-Weiskop comments on the Chancellor's visit. 

Olaf Scholz's potential trip to Central Asia was first actively discussed in political circles in both Germany and Central Asian countries in mid-July of this year. It was noted that this would be the Bundeskanzler's first trip to the region. The region gained new-found strategic importance after February 2022. However, it was not specified which countries Mr. Scholz intended to visit, nor was there any information about the topics of the upcoming negotiations.

Nuances 

Some clarity about the  German Chancellor's upcoming trip to Central Asia appeared only on September 6. Information about Olaf Scholz's plans for the coming days of the current month was posted in the "calendar" section on an official website. His trip to Central Asia was set for September 15 to 17. During it, he would also take part in the Z5+1 summit in Kazakhstan. On the same day, September 6, a press release was distributed by the official representative of the German government, Steffen Hebestreit. It specified that to conduct bilateral negotiations for deepening cooperation, Olaf Scholz would first visit Uzbekistan and then fly to Kazakhstan.

He will also meet with the leaders of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan in Astana. These interactions will be on the sidelines of the aforementioned second Central Asia-Germany summit (the first summit of this format took place in September 2023 in Berlin - Ed.). Steffen Hebestreit also added that Scholz's upcoming meetings will focus on "bilateral and foreign policy topics." 

The official representative also emphasized, "A large and high-ranking business delegation will accompany the Chancellor." On September 7, Tashkent and Astana reported that Olaf Scholz would arrive on an official visit.

The Bundeskanzler's first official visit in history indicates that Germany attaches great importance to business and political relations with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Given the Chancellor's position in the German political hierarchy, his official visit to Samarqand and Astana can be practically equated to a state visit. Olaf Scholz may, therefore, be met not by the nations' heads of government, as required by the protocols of international relations, but directly by the presidents of both countries - Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Qasym-Jomart Toqayev.

The short line from Steffen Hebestreit's press release that "a large and high-ranking business delegation will accompany the Chancellor" suggests the signing of a relatively large package of significant agreements and treaties in politics and economics. Documents signed during such visits are traditionally prepared in advance, whereas negotiations in a narrow and expanded delegation carry more of a clarifying nature.

The calendar sequence of Scholz's trip - first Tashkent, then Astana, where the Z5+1 summit will also be held - suggests that Kazakhstan is a more crucial regional partner for Germany. It is indeed much closer to fly from Bishkek, Dushanbe, and Ashgabat to Tashkent or Samarqand, where Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev persistently suggests holding meetings at various levels. 

Incidentally, this seemingly harmless choice could somewhat complicate the negotiation process in Samarqand. Although Uzbekistan needs foreign investment, it understands perfectly well that in the conditions of the global geopolitical storm, Germany is not the only one demonstrating interest in the region in various aspects of cooperation. This means trying to negotiate more favorable agreement terms is possible. 

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida also intended to visit Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. However, to the disappointment of his country's business circles, he canceled his visit, citing the Japan Meteorological Agency's warnings. Topics discussed by the German and Japanese sides with their potential Central Asian partners, coupled with the fragmentary information that previously came from Tokyo and Berlin, also point to several coinciding points. There is divergence, nonetheless. 

According to the information available to Orda, the Japanese side was preparing to propose cooperation in water-saving technologies in agriculture, the extraction and processing of rare earth elements, the production of microchips, the assembly of automobiles, assistance in the development of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor, and nuclear energy. 

What Official Berlin Has to Offer

Unlike Japan, Germany has never offered nuclear technology and will certainly not do so in the upcoming negotiations. In 2023, Germany's last three nuclear power plants were kiboshed.

Germany will almost certainly pay attention to its latest developments in renewable energy sources. Or rather, it will continue the negotiation process. Last year, during the state visit of German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, only in Kazakhstan was the construction of a plant for the production of "green hydrogen" launched, with the simultaneous creation of wind farms and solar power plants with a total capacity of 40 gigawatts.

New agreements on renewable energy sources might be signed. Incidentally, almost 60% of electricity in Germany is generated from renewable sources, and by 2030, Berlin intends to increase this figure to 80%. 

Germany will most likely discuss and even sign agreements and contracts on the creation of joint ventures in the economy's mining and chemical sectors and the production of building materials, pharmaceuticals, tourism, agriculture, and transport. Considering Olaf Scholz's meeting with the diplomatic corps accredited in Germany held on September 10 in Berlin, talks could also pertain to the supply of hydrocarbon raw materials to Germany and labor forces. 

Oil supplies have been resolved. After the war in Ukraine began, Kazakhstan became one of the largest oil exporters in the German economy. This year alone, up to 1.2 million tons of crude oil should be shipped via the Druzhba pipeline, the primary consumer of which is the refinery in Schwedt. The pipeline supplies fuel to Berlin and the federal state of Brandenburg.

Germany is likely keen on extending the current contracts and significantly increasing the volumes of oil supplied. There are predictions that Astana and Berlin will find a mutual understanding, allowing Kazakhstan to become Germany's largest trading partner in the post-Soviet space. 

Germany might also make significant concessions, primarily to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, by lifting several existing visa restrictions on their citizens' entry into Germany. The reason is apparent, although it is rarely discussed in the media. The German economy needs a qualified workforce.

Workers and engineering and technical personnel trained at enterprises in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are almost ideal. They are well-educated, and many know how to work with technical documentation. They also have good work discipline.

Knowledge of the German language remains an issue, yet, as practice shows, it can be resolved within one year. 

No Way Without Big Politics

Undoubtedly, during Olaf Scholz's official visit to Central Asia, issues of big politics will also be raised. However, one should not expect harsh pressure, most likely - the economy will take the forefront. Almost certainly, the German side will express its concern over the ongoing attempts of companies from Central Asian countries to circumvent sanctions against Russia. 

At the same time, it will indicate a particular understanding of the impossibility of breaking the region's long-standing close ties with the Russian economy. It cannot be ruled out that during personal meetings, the Chancellor will try to persuade Mirziyoyev, Toqayev, Japarov, Rakhmon, and Berdimuhamedow to participate in the Second Peace Summit initiated by Zelenskyy, as well as to support Olaf Scholz's own peace plan to end the war in Ukraine. 

During the negotiations, Olaf Scholz may, in passing, touch upon the topic of ensuring freedom of the press, respect for human rights, and the attitude of the region's countries towards the LGBTQ+ community. According to unconfirmed information available to Orda's editorial board, the German Chancellor has informal meetings planned with representatives of Central Asian human rights organizations, both in Samarqand and Astana. 

The accuracy of our projections will become apparent in the coming hours. According to reports from Uzbekistan, Samarqand is eagerly awaiting the start of Olaf Scholz's official visit and his meeting with President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. 

The Bundeskanzler will be in Uzbekistan until lunchtime on September 16, after which he will fly to Astana. 

Original Author: Anatoly Ivanov-Weiskopf