Experts Comment on Toqayev's Interview with Ana Tili

President Toqayev's recent interview with Ana Tili was initially published in Kazakh on January 3, and a Russian translation was later available on Aqorda's official website.

Political analysts have weighed in on the interview that covered several key topics.

Focus On National Policy

Political scientist Daniyar Ashimbayev highlighted a notable emphasis on national identity and domestic policies.

As we can see, the President emphasizes the national theme. If the adjective 'Kazakhstani' was used only three times, then 'Kazakh' was heard much more often: in addition to the language, Toqayev mentioned 'the Kazakh people', 'Kazakh statehood', 'Kazakh banks,' 'the Kazakh side', 'Kazakh diplomacy,' 'the Kazakh intelligentsia,' 'Kazakh traditions and culture.' The very choice of Kazakh-language publications for the 'New Year's' interview should once again emphasize the role of nation-building in the President's policy,  the political scientist believes.

Ashimbayev noted that the interview shared themes with Toqayev's New Year's address, highlighting industrial, political, and international achievements while defending the government against criticism.

He also pointed out a significant statement:

The President's thesis is also interesting: 'I have big plans for the development of the country for many years to come, which I intend to implement.'

The political scientist noted that Toqayev avoided repeating previous statements about a single seven-year term, which seemed logical.

A year ago, Toqayev declared that "the provision on a single seven-year term for the president is immutable," and frequent mentions could cause curiosity.

Ashimbayev noted that Toqayev firmly dismissed speculation about early parliamentary elections and any shift toward parliamentary governance.

The President made his stance clear, stating that a presidential system remains the best fit for now and in the foreseeable future.

The President wisely distanced himself from the time zone change, pointing out that this is the government's decision, and let them and the parliament look for the right solution. Toqayev refrained from giving unambiguous assessments of the Bektenov government's prospects, but assessed the work of the economist leaders as mediocre.

Ashimbayev highlighted Toqayev's comments about Nazarbayev's recent meeting with Putin.

The President described them as old friends and colleagues who "have something to remember," emphasizing Nazarbayev's moral and political connections to the Kremlin.

Regarding foreign policy, Ashimbayev noted Toqayev's focus on three key figures: Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Donald Trump.

Trump had reportedly inquired about Kazakhstan's perspective on ending the Ukraine war during their phone conversation.

End of Dual Power Discussions 

Political scientist Gaziz Abishev emphasized that Toqayev had clearly established his position:

It is clear that after three decades of absolute dominance, Nazarbayev retains a noticeable residual media gravity by inertia. He is an attractive object for rumors, speculation and discussions. Meanwhile, Toqayev confirms a simple law of politics that works in all consolidated regimes - there can only be one supreme leader in the country, the one designated as such by the Constitution. Everything else is nonsense, sooner or later leading to a political crisis.

Abishev explained that after stepping down as President, Nazarbayev maintained several key positions, including lifetime chairing of the Security Council and leadership of Samruk-Kazyna, which reinforced the public perception of dual power.

Some officials (apparently, this includes former Justice Minister Beketayev and others) flew of the handle, publicly expressing doubts about the priority of presidential power in favor of the institution of Elbasy. Nazarbayev himself sometimes invited the Prime Minister to the carpet, sometimes hinted at the possibility of returning to the presidential chair, citing examples of similar comebacks in other countries, and sometimes came to the CIS summit in St. Petersburg, writes the expert.

Despite criticisms, Toqayev maintains respect for his predecessor's achievements:

As Toqayev notes, he himself does not forget about Nazarbayev. Not every week, but every month, not in person, but by phone - but he still communicates with his predecessor.

Abishev noted the interview's emphasis on nuclear power plants, with Toqayev stating: "We can begin building a second, and possibly a third nuclear power plant."

He suggested the first plant would likely involve Russian and Chinese cooperation.

The political scientist also interpreted Toqayev's statements as signals of upcoming personnel changes, noting Deputy Prime Minister Baibazarov's recent dismissal and suggesting other underperforming government members might face similar fates.

In other words, armchair theorists have become boring with their glamorous rhetoric, and the fashion for strong business executives is returning. Those who have thoroughly kneaded the soil in the regions with their feet and tinkered with the industry mechanisms with their hands. For some time, an exclusively metropolitan career without regional lines on the resume will be a conditionally negative recommendation, the political scientist sums up.

Signals to Domestic and Foreign Audiences

Political scientist Andrei Chebotarev viewed the interview as both a summary and a crucial message:

The emphasis on the presence of large and long-term plans for the development of Kazakhstan and the intention to implement them disavows forecasts and rumors about the probable early departure of Toqayev from the post of Head of State and the launch of a new process of transition of power. Thus, the president gave a clear signal to his fellow citizens and foreign partners about the continuation of his activities during the constitutional term. The groundlessness of forecasts regarding the holding of early parliamentary elections was also noted. All this is intended to demonstrate the sustainability of the activities of key state institutions.

Chebotarev noted Toqayev's commitment to ongoing and future reforms, which will be presented at the fourth National Kurultay session.

Regarding Nazarbayev, Chebotarev saw the interview as part of stabilizing elite relationships:

The announcement regarding the recent monthly communication between the current and former Presidents of Kazakhstan made it clear that their relations have more or less normalized. In turn, this may contribute to the gradual settlement of intra-elite contradictions. At the very least, Aqorda is ready to support objective assessments of the former President's services to the country and be loyal to his foreign contacts, including Putin. From Nazarbayev, clear guarantees are most likely expected about his and his family members' non-participation in the political life of Kazakhstan and the return of certain assets to the state.

On the nuclear power plant initiative, Chebotarev added:

The intention to create an international consortium for the construction of a nuclear power plant has been confirmed, including the holding of the necessary tender procedures this year. Moreover, Kazatomprom will apparently participate in it as the general operator, which is intended to support Kazakhstan's national interests in this project as much as possible. The President's statement about the possible construction of one or two more nuclear power plants in the future is most likely of a probing nature.

Original Author: Artem Volkov