Finance Experts: Kazakhstan Faces Potential Currency Shortage for Debt Repayments

The demand for foreign currency greatly exceeds the supply in Kazakhstan's currency market. This may lead to the country not having enough dollars to pay off its external debt, Orda.kz reports.

Analysts from the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) warn of this risk in their latest review.

They highlight that as of January 13, trading on KASE showed a trend of predominantly buying rather than selling currency. As a result, the tenge exchange rate weakened even more (to 528.71 tenge per dollar).

The supply of foreign currency—bolstered by export revenue inflows and the conversion of transfers from the National Fund to the budget—fails to meet current demand. This demand is driven by obligations such as servicing external debts, paying for imports, etc. According to the National Bank, external debt repayment and servicing in 2025 could total $30.5 billion, a significant increase from $24.4 billion the previous year,  AFK experts note.

In October last year, it was reported that Kazakhstan's external debt had risen by $3 billion, reaching $166.7 billion.

The National Bank is actively working to stabilize the currency market and prevent the tenge from further depreciating.

However, the effectiveness of these efforts is debatable. 

Original Author: Nikita Drobny