Fake Accession to Russia Referendum Rumor Spreads Online — Originated with Fugitive Politician

Social media platforms have been flooded with claims that a referendum on “Kazakhstan’s accession to Russia” will allegedly be announced during the upcoming Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan (APK) session on April 23–24.

Orda.kz investigated who is behind this provocation and why.

The Source

The source of this false claim is fugitive ex-banker and politician Mukhtar Ablyazov, who was sentenced in absentia to 20 years in prison in Kazakhstan. Ablyazov’s videos and posts, published in late March, gained tens of thousands of views and sparked intense discussion online.

Ablyazov claims to have received the information “through various channels," claiming he wanted to warn the public to “thwart the authorities’ plans.”

His statements range from “joining” Russia to forming a “union state” similar to the Belarus-Russia model.

Now we must break Putin and Toqayev's plans to declare Kazakhstan a union state with Russia. And we can do it, just as we did when they tried to appoint Dariga Nazarbayeva as President of Kazakhstan! Ablyazov says.

The strategy is clear: announce a “plan” in advance and later take credit for its absence.

According to Factcheck.kz, Ablyazov’s messages spread across social networks and messengers. In WhatsApp, users circulated claims that the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan had already announced a referendum, even including the April 23–24 session dates.

Ablyazov first floated the idea of such a “referendum” in October 2024, after the vote on the nuclear power plant. At that time, he claimed a union with Russia would be the next step — though he offered no timeline.

The Reality

There are no official announcements about any referendum. On March 20, President Qasym-Jomart Toqayev announced the 34th session of the Assembly of the People of Kazakhstan.

On April 1, APK Deputy Chair Lugmar Bularov firmly rejected the rumors, calling the claims "a lie and a provocation." He stressed that such a topic "is not even being discussed."

According to Kazakhstan’s law “On the Republican Referendum,” only issues that comply with the Constitution can be brought to a vote. Questions regarding independence, territorial integrity, and the form of government cannot be subject to a referendum.

Only the President has the authority to initiate a referendum. While in 2022 Toqayev proposed constitutional amendments via the Assembly, no such initiative has been suggested this time.

A screenshot from Ablyazov’s Instagram account shows that his statements are based on assumptions rather than facts. Even he admits he is “speaking ahead of the curve.”

However, as is often the case, such rumors take on their own life — spreading first as speculation, then becoming distorted and amplified across social media.

There is no credible evidence that a referendum will be discussed at the APK session on April 23–24.

The Assembly has also denied it, and authorities have begun detaining individuals for spreading fake information.

Police officers of the Qaraganda region identified, detained and brought to administrative responsibility two residents of the region for disseminating fake information,
the regional Department of Police reported. 

This situation serves as a textbook case of how baseless rumors can spiral into viral disinformation.

Previously, Orda.kz reported that a court found Mukhtar Ablyazov guilty of contracting the 2004 killing of banker Yerzhan Tatishev. The convicted hitman, Muratkhan Tokmadi, has been serving his sentence since 2018.

Original Author: Alina Pak