Rumors Resurface About Government Reshuffle as Criticism Mounts

In Astana, discussion has again turned to a possible resignation of the government and Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, Orda.kz reports.

A year and a half after taking office, Bektenov is facing growing criticism from the president and the public, mainly over tax reforms, inflation, and rising prices and tariffs.

Food costs continue to climb faster than consumers or businesses can adjust, while small and medium-sized enterprises say they are being squeezed by fiscal measures. Analysts note that tensions around the economy are building, prompting renewed talk of political change.

A “Lightning Rod”

Political scientist Daniyar Ashimbayev believes the Cabinet is unlikely to be dismissed under public pressure. Kazakhstan’s leadership, he says, rarely responds directly to criticism and prefers to choose its own timing for reshuffles.

The president traditionally replaces the government at the beginning, not at the end of the year. The last three prime ministers were appointed in January–February — perhaps this tradition will continue. Half the government is performing well, but the other half is under pressure. Personnel changes within the cabinet, especially in the economic bloc, are not ruled out. Changes in personnel are possible within a month or two, but a general change is not yet in the cards. Especially since the current government is a convenient lightning rod. In the near future, it will be collecting all the negativity,
 says the political scientist.

Ashimbayev adds that public frustration is understandable: several ministries have clearly fallen short. Today, criticism of economic policy mostly comes from business circles rather than the wider public.

As prices rose beyond forecasts, the president personally intervened to prevent further social strain.

The economic bloc demonstrates a lack of understanding of cause-and-effect relationships in the economy. The government is unable to combat lobbying and is incapable of stabilizing public finances. And when it comes to budget and tax matters, it behaves like a bull in a china shop,
 the political scientist notes.

Who Could Replace Bektenov?

Speculation about possible successors has intensified. If the position does not go to a new figure close to the administration, attention could turn to established politicians. The most frequently mentioned name is former Almaty Akim Yerbolat Dosayev, valued for his broad government experience.

However, serious competition is lacking, and not all analysts see such an outcome as likely.

I don't think Dosayev will be brought in. Although he's a strong figure: he has experience in economic departments, in business, in the Ministry of Social Affairs, and at the regional level. He served as chair of the agency for regulating natural monopolies, as minister of finance, minister of health, minister of economy, deputy prime minister, head of the National Bank, and Akim of Almaty. He has colossal experience, but the political situation is currently not in his favor,
 Ashimbayev says.

Total Reshuffle Unlikely

According to financial analyst Rasul Rysmambetov, a total reshuffle is improbable. The country’s economic policy, he says, is largely determined by Aqorda, and the government is simply implementing that course.

The Cabinet of Ministers' main mandate is the decree on economic liberalization. Its essence is to reduce inefficient spending and conserve the National Fund's resources. To achieve this, the state is gradually eliminating subsidies for utilities and fuel, allowing prices to approach market levels. When we artificially hold down fuel prices, it's not only consumers who lose out, but also oil producers in Atyrau, Aqtau, and Zhanaozen,
 notes the financial analyst.

Rysmambetov argues that Kazakhstan has reached the limits of resource-driven growth, and diversification has stalled. The next step, he says, must be transitioning to deeper processing and private investment.

Yet investors remain cautious due to an uneven business climate and weak enforcement.

When you pay for meat, you're not paying Nazarbayev or Toqayev — you're paying the farmer. This isn't an attempt to justify the authorities. That's how economic dynamics work. The president recently stated: the country needs qualitative, not quantitative, growth. But until recently, the 'growth at any cost' mentality was in effect — that's how we got inflation. And if we abandon investment now, we'll have to stop construction and production—and the economy will freeze completely,
 the analyst explains.

The problem isn't one person; everyone is to blame. This is the responsibility not only of the prime minister, but also of financial monitoring agencies, anti-corruption bodies, and the security services. Liberalization is inevitable, but it requires fine-tuning: it's important that every initiative is driven not by lobbyists, but by genuine economic calculations,
 Rysmambetov sums up.

Global Turbulence, Local Realities

Majilis Deputy Yerlan Sairov points out that domestic economic issues cannot be viewed in isolation from the global context.

Everyone is in turmoil today. Even the United States, once apostles of the free market, has been erecting tariff barriers — against China, India, and Europe. The world is tightening the screws, and this tremor is naturally infecting us,
 he says.

Despite challenges such as inflation and a budget deficit, Sairov believes the economy remains stable. The greater test, he says, will come by 2029, when Kazakhstan must double its GDP to $450 billion.

Achieving this, he argues, will require cooperation between large and medium-sized businesses, new investment, and a balance between state regulation and market mechanisms.

Original Author: Dinara Bekbolayeva